2010 Senate Race Update

Sorry I haven't been posting much in the last week, but I've been incredibly sick, and my major goal at the time was just to survive.

I'll start with a 2010 Senate Race Update. Mostly I will be talking about how incredibly dumb Roland Burris is and how incredibly crazy the situation in New Hampshire now is.


I'll start with the two most interesting ones, which are also the two that I switched my rating on.

IL-Sen (Likely Dem to Lean Dem)

Wow Roland Burris is such a goner. Look at this face. This is the face of a man who will not be in the Senate in two years.


Two bombshells in two days. He tried to raise money for Blagojevich and he lied under oath during Blago's impeachment trial. For the full article from the NY Times click here. Otherwise I have taken the two most important quotes out of the article:

Mr. Burris, 71, tried, without success, to raise money for the governor, he acknowledged, at the request of the governor’s brother.

Since January, Mr. Burris has offered differing descriptions — at least three of them under oath — of what led to his arrival in the Senate.

I moved the race to lean democrat because Burris is much more vulnerable to a Republican challenger now, but I don't think he'll survive a Democratic primary challenger. This is assuming he is still in office in a year and a half. Illinois Republicans are calling for impeachment and the Democrats have ordered investigations. He is so toast.

NH-Sen (Lean Rep to Tossup)

Wow, this race has changed dramatically. Originally Judd Gregg (the current Republican senator) was going to be facing a fairly formidable challenge, but not something he couldn't beat.

Then he was suddenly Obama's new appointment for Commerce Secretary. It surprised me greatly since Gregg is a fiscal conservative, but whatever. Democratic Governor John Lynch was going to appoint a moderate Republican as Senator. I was going to put the race at Tossup at this point.

Then suddenly and dramatically Gregg announced he was removing his name from consideration to be Commerce Secretary over differences he had with Obama. I had felt that this was a relationship bound to have problems anyway. I feel it is fairly irresponsible on Gregg and Obama's parts that this happened. I was going to keep the race at Lean Republican, however. Here is the administration's initial response. It is fairly harsh sounding.

“Senator Gregg reached out to the President and offered his name for Secretary of Commerce. He was very clear throughout the interviewing process that despite past disagreements about policies, he would support, embrace, and move forward with the President’s agenda. Once it became clear after his nomination that Senator Gregg was not going to be supporting some of President Obama’s key economic priorities, it became necessary for Senator Gregg and the Obama administration to part ways. We regret that he has had a change of heart”.

The next day, Gregg announced he is not running for reelection in 2010. Oh my gosh. New Hampshire is a fairly Democratic state. Then Paul Hodes, a Democratic Congressman in the House, announced he is running for Senate. There is currently no Republican challenger. I really think this race is Lean Democrat at this point, but I will wait until I see who his challenger will be. This race is just crazy.

KS-Sen (staying at Safe Republican)

I had this at Safe Republican before, but was going to change it to Tossup as soon as term-limited Democratic governor Kathleen Sebelius entered the race. Well, it looks like she may be headed to the White House instead as Human Health and Services Secretary. I like her a lot (as does almost everyone in Kansas, Democrat or Republican), so I am happy she will have a job somewhere, but consider this race a safe Republican hold.

CT-Sen (Staying at Safe Democrat....for now)

Chris Dodd has been around for quite awhile, but his approval ratings are low and he has been surrounded by some controversies lately. One reason his constituents aren't too happy with him is that he moved to Iowa to run for President, only to fail miserably. Now it looks like he will probably have a fairly strong Republican challenger in Robbie Simmons (I can't remember what position he has held before, but he beat an incumbent Democrat before for some office).

"My consideration of running against Sen. Dodd is not poll-driven," said Simmons, who criticized Dodd for losing touch with his constituents. "When I first ran for Congress in 1999, the Republican brand was way down in the toilet, and people said I was crazy to run when the GOP was out of favor - and I was able to beat a 20-year incumbent."

Simmons said that, if he runs, he would face a significant fundraising disadvantage against Dodd. Still, he believes he would be financially competitive enough to run a formidable statewide campaign.

"He'll go to his pals in the banking industry and get lots of money - and I won't have that opportunity. But I don't believe that Senate offices are meant to be bought and sold," Simmons said.

Personally, I think Dodd will win, but this could be interesting. I am thinking of moving this to Likely Dem.

MO-Sen (Staying at Tossup)

I said before that if Robin Carnahan (Dem) runs for Senator, she is probably the frontrunner. Well, she announced her candidacy. I feel she is currently the frontrunner, but I am definitely waiting to change the rating until she has a challenger.

UT-Sen (Staying at Safe Republican)

This is funny. Conservative Republican Senator Bob Bennett of Utah might face a primary challenge from an even MORE conservative candidate in David Leavitt, the former Juab County attorney best known for his successful prosecution of polygamist Tom Green. Bennett really isn't in much danger in my opinion, but I find it amusing.

Have a nice day!