2010 Senate Race Update

Sorry I haven't been posting much in the last week, but I've been incredibly sick, and my major goal at the time was just to survive.

I'll start with a 2010 Senate Race Update. Mostly I will be talking about how incredibly dumb Roland Burris is and how incredibly crazy the situation in New Hampshire now is.


I'll start with the two most interesting ones, which are also the two that I switched my rating on.

IL-Sen (Likely Dem to Lean Dem)

Wow Roland Burris is such a goner. Look at this face. This is the face of a man who will not be in the Senate in two years.


Two bombshells in two days. He tried to raise money for Blagojevich and he lied under oath during Blago's impeachment trial. For the full article from the NY Times click here. Otherwise I have taken the two most important quotes out of the article:

Mr. Burris, 71, tried, without success, to raise money for the governor, he acknowledged, at the request of the governor’s brother.

Since January, Mr. Burris has offered differing descriptions — at least three of them under oath — of what led to his arrival in the Senate.

I moved the race to lean democrat because Burris is much more vulnerable to a Republican challenger now, but I don't think he'll survive a Democratic primary challenger. This is assuming he is still in office in a year and a half. Illinois Republicans are calling for impeachment and the Democrats have ordered investigations. He is so toast.

NH-Sen (Lean Rep to Tossup)

Wow, this race has changed dramatically. Originally Judd Gregg (the current Republican senator) was going to be facing a fairly formidable challenge, but not something he couldn't beat.

Then he was suddenly Obama's new appointment for Commerce Secretary. It surprised me greatly since Gregg is a fiscal conservative, but whatever. Democratic Governor John Lynch was going to appoint a moderate Republican as Senator. I was going to put the race at Tossup at this point.

Then suddenly and dramatically Gregg announced he was removing his name from consideration to be Commerce Secretary over differences he had with Obama. I had felt that this was a relationship bound to have problems anyway. I feel it is fairly irresponsible on Gregg and Obama's parts that this happened. I was going to keep the race at Lean Republican, however. Here is the administration's initial response. It is fairly harsh sounding.

“Senator Gregg reached out to the President and offered his name for Secretary of Commerce. He was very clear throughout the interviewing process that despite past disagreements about policies, he would support, embrace, and move forward with the President’s agenda. Once it became clear after his nomination that Senator Gregg was not going to be supporting some of President Obama’s key economic priorities, it became necessary for Senator Gregg and the Obama administration to part ways. We regret that he has had a change of heart”.

The next day, Gregg announced he is not running for reelection in 2010. Oh my gosh. New Hampshire is a fairly Democratic state. Then Paul Hodes, a Democratic Congressman in the House, announced he is running for Senate. There is currently no Republican challenger. I really think this race is Lean Democrat at this point, but I will wait until I see who his challenger will be. This race is just crazy.

KS-Sen (staying at Safe Republican)

I had this at Safe Republican before, but was going to change it to Tossup as soon as term-limited Democratic governor Kathleen Sebelius entered the race. Well, it looks like she may be headed to the White House instead as Human Health and Services Secretary. I like her a lot (as does almost everyone in Kansas, Democrat or Republican), so I am happy she will have a job somewhere, but consider this race a safe Republican hold.

CT-Sen (Staying at Safe Democrat....for now)

Chris Dodd has been around for quite awhile, but his approval ratings are low and he has been surrounded by some controversies lately. One reason his constituents aren't too happy with him is that he moved to Iowa to run for President, only to fail miserably. Now it looks like he will probably have a fairly strong Republican challenger in Robbie Simmons (I can't remember what position he has held before, but he beat an incumbent Democrat before for some office).

"My consideration of running against Sen. Dodd is not poll-driven," said Simmons, who criticized Dodd for losing touch with his constituents. "When I first ran for Congress in 1999, the Republican brand was way down in the toilet, and people said I was crazy to run when the GOP was out of favor - and I was able to beat a 20-year incumbent."

Simmons said that, if he runs, he would face a significant fundraising disadvantage against Dodd. Still, he believes he would be financially competitive enough to run a formidable statewide campaign.

"He'll go to his pals in the banking industry and get lots of money - and I won't have that opportunity. But I don't believe that Senate offices are meant to be bought and sold," Simmons said.

Personally, I think Dodd will win, but this could be interesting. I am thinking of moving this to Likely Dem.

MO-Sen (Staying at Tossup)

I said before that if Robin Carnahan (Dem) runs for Senator, she is probably the frontrunner. Well, she announced her candidacy. I feel she is currently the frontrunner, but I am definitely waiting to change the rating until she has a challenger.

UT-Sen (Staying at Safe Republican)

This is funny. Conservative Republican Senator Bob Bennett of Utah might face a primary challenge from an even MORE conservative candidate in David Leavitt, the former Juab County attorney best known for his successful prosecution of polygamist Tom Green. Bennett really isn't in much danger in my opinion, but I find it amusing.

Have a nice day!

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2010 Senate Race Ratings UPDATED w/ cool graph

I came up with a disgustingly early rating for each Senate seat for the 2010 midterm election. The ratings go from Strong Democrat to Strong Republican. I have included explanations for each seat, although in the future I will only provide explanations when I change the rating on a seat. I don’t expect to do this very much in the near future. The reason I am doing this so early is twofold: (1) I like to see how a race has evolved over the course of two years, and (2) I am a total geek. I’ll do it in the form of a chart soon. While I know that other, more legitimate websites do ratings systems like these, I don't always agree with them, so I'm doing my own.

My early analysis – Republicans will probably lose more seats in 2010 than they gain, if they gain any.


Strong Democrat
AR (D-Lincoln) – Republicans have no bench whatsoever in Arkansas besides Huckabee, who won’t run.
CA (D-Boxer) – If Schwarzenegger enters the race (which I don’t think he will) I would move this to Likely Democrat, but otherwise Boxer is safe.
CT (D-Dodd) – Dodd doesn’t have high favorables, but he is safe.
DE (D-Kaufman, will be open seat) – Even though this will be an open seat, consider it safe democrat. Mike Castle is the only popular republican in the state, but he is so old that if he doesn’t retire he will stay in the House.
HI (D-Inouye) – He is old enough he could retire, but even so Hawaii is a very Democratic state. The Republican Governor Lingle could potentially run for Senate, but she has no real reason to at this point, especially since she is far from guaranteed a win.
IN (D-Bayh) – He is wildly popular here. In addition, Indiana is far more blue than it used to be.
MD (D-Mikulski) – Maryland is definitely a Democratic state.
ND (D-Dorgan) – Even though North Dakota is a Republican state, I don’t foresee Dorgan having any problems.
NY (D-Gillibrand) – Republicans were hoping so badly that Caroline Kennedy would be the pick.
NY (D-Schumer) – You don’t topple Schumer. Schumer topples you.
VT (D-Leahy) – Leahy isn’t budging whatsoever.
WA (D-Murray) – She has proven herself very adequate indeed at thwarting off challenges.
WI (D-Feingold) – Feingold always faces top notch challengers, yet he always wins. My guess is that he receives only token opposition this time.

Likely Democrat
CO (D-Bennet) – The fact that he has no name recognition whatsoever, yet still leads prospective Republican opponents in the polls is pretty telling.
IL (D-Burris) – Illinois is pretty damn liberal. Burris will have a tougher time winning the primary than the general I believe.
NV (D-Reid) – No one really likes Reid, but Nevada lacks a strong Republican bench. As the Republicans put immense amounts of political capital into defending McConnell, so will the Democrats in defending Reid. Personally, I don’t like him.

Lean Democrat
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Tossup
FL (R-Martinez, will be open seat) – Martinez has been wildly unpopular during his first time, thus he is retiring. I have no clue what is going to happen here at this point. If Jeb Bush runs it is his, but he said he won’t. Alex Sink is the leading Democrat for the job, but he has also refused. Who will run? TBD.
KY (R-Bunning) – If Bunning doesn’t retire, I am pretty sure he will lose. Bunning has mental issues – not a joke. The state strongly dislikes him. Republican leaders are trying to get him to retire, but he is refusing. He has raised a pitiful amount of money during his term. His Democratic challenger barely lost to him last time, and Bunning is even less liked now.
MO (R-Bond, will be open seat)- Bond retired, which may be due to the fact that nobody really enjoys being a Republican in Congress right now. If beloved Democrat Robin Carnahan decides to run, I feel she will be the front runner.
OH (R-Voinovich, will be open seat) – Voinovich also retired, maybe due to the same reason as Bond, although Voinovich is fairly old. Republican Rob Portman may be the frontrunner at this point, but we don’t know who his opponent will be and he worked for President Bush, which certainly doesn’t help him.

Lean Republican
NC (R-Burr) – Burr is in what has been labeled the “revolving-door-seat.” Nobody, Democrat or Republican, can seem to stay in office for more than one term. Early polling has shown Burr vulnerable, and North Carolina is becoming increasingly bluer.
NH (R-Gregg) – Gregg seems to know he is in trouble. He just saw his Republican partner in the Senate, Sununu, defeated in November. Gregg has been floated as a possible appointment for the Secretary of Commerce. If this happens, his seat will be empty and Democratic Governor John Lynch could pick whoever he wanted. However, I think he would pick a Republican. Just a hunch. If a Republican is appointed, they will face an extremely strong challenger in 2010, although so will Gregg if he stays.
PA (R-Specter) – Specter is nowhere near safe, but Specter seems to be a survivor. We shall see. He may also retire, which would give Democrats a huge boost.

Likely Republican
LA (R-Vitter) – Vitter has a prostitute type sex scandal a couple years back, but Louisiana is crazy and I think he will stay in office.

Strong Republican
AK (R-Murkowski) – The only possible change I see in this seat is which Republican holds it. The incumbent Murkowski? Or Palin perhaps?
AL (R-Shelby) – He won’t be moving anywhere unless he retires.
AZ (R-McCain) – Janet Napolitano was the Democrats best hope, but she is the new Attorney General of the United States. There are some rumors that he will face a Republican primary challenger because people don’t find him conservative enough. If a primary battle erupts and there is a legitimate Democrat in the race, it has the slight possibility of becoming interesting.
GA (R-Isakson) – Isakson may also face a primary challenger because some Republicans view him to not be conservative enough…what the hell? I understand McCain, but Isakson is pretty damn conservative. Even with a heated primary I don’t see Democrats having much of a chance at this early stage.
ID (R-Crapo) – Nothing to see here, move along.
IA (R-Grassley) – If Grassley retires, this may go straight to Lean Democrat. Iowa as a state can’t stand Republicans…except Grassley. Grassley may still face a decent challenger, but I expect him to keep the seat if he wants it.
KS (R-Brownback, will be open seat) – Brownback announced his retirement a couple years ago I believe. He is doing this to most likely run for Governor because the crazy-popular Democratic governor, Kathleen Sebelius, is term-limited. Sebelius is the one and only Democrat who could win this race. If she enters, this goes straight to Tossup.
OK (R-Coburn) – He is a crazy, crazy man. However, Oklahoma is a crazy, crazy state.
SC (R-DeMint) – DeMint is safe.
SD (R-Thune) – Safe, safe, safe.
TX (R-Hutchison) – Texas could become interesting. Hutchison may resign to run for governor against the current Republican governor Rick Perry. If this happens, there will be a crazy Republican primary process. There are some strong Democratic challengers who have declared they will run. Keep your eyes on this one.
UT (R-Bennett) – Besides Crapo, Bennett is possibly the safest Republican in the Senate.

If you read all of this, have an incredibly wonderful most glorious of days day.

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