These are predictions for what films are going to be nominated for Oscars. The actual nominations will be announced in a week, on the 22nd of January. A lot of these picks are conventional wisdom, but I'm going to give it a go anyways. And no, I won't be predicting the categories like sound mixing. I'd love to but I don't have the time. For some awards, like cinematography, I'll give a quick brief on what each means. Even I had no idea what Art Direction was until a few weeks ago.
Best Picture
The first three are locks. Gran Torino is gaining a lot of support, especially because of the $30 million it made over the weekend. Frost/Nixon is a popular choice, but I feel like it's losing steam. The Dark Knight could easily be replaced by that or Doubt, but a man can hope.
Best Actor
I see Brad Pitt getting bumped off in favor for Jenkins. The Oscars always throw in an under-appreciated actor just to recognize them for a good performance (see Ryan Gosling for Half Nelson and Viggo Mortensen for Eastern Promises ). Plus, Pitt didn't do much besides look old and sad. And later, young and sad.
Best Actress
The first four are locks. I picked Scott Thomas over Angelina Jolie (Changeling), who got love for A Mighty Heart last year. Her film, in French, is about a woman with a painful secret that returns to her sister after a fifteen year absence. Happy-Go-Lucky is a British film about a schoolteacher who always remains optimistic and happy, no matter what her predicament is.
Best Director
Once again, I have Frost/Nixon going down in favor of Clint Eastwood.
Best Supporting Actor
Downey Jr. is a wild card but he's going to get the final slot for a few reasons. First, Heath Ledger is going to win anyways so it doesn't really matter who's nominated. Second, the Academy Awards needs the ratings boost. Lastly, he's awesome and totally deserves the recognition.
Best Supporting Actress
All of these are pretty solid, little competition here. The only question is, will Kate Winslet be eligible for a supporting role? She had a major part in The Reader , but she's trying this category to avoid competition with herself in the Best Actress race. She made it into the supporting category at the Golden Globes, but who knows with the Oscars.
Original Screenplay
In Bruges is a long shot, I know. I have hope, especially since it's been gaining popularity since the Golden Globes and BAFTAs. This category is insanely wide open. The only sure thing is Milk .
Adapted Screenplay
No real surprises among this bunch. The sources of these screenplays: Two Broadway plays, an F. Scott Fitzgerald short story, a little-known novel, and a comic book character.
Cinematography
The cinematographer works with the lighting of each scene. It may not seem like a big deal, but a film's lighting often influences the audience's mood. For example, a lot of The Dark Knight is shot with low-key lighting in order for us to feel as somber as the characters in the movie.
Art Direction
Art direction is really made up of both the art director and set design. They construct the sets, choose locales, create props, basically everything in the background of the film. This award usually goes to period pieces which require re-creating the look and feel of decades long past. I know the first three seem repetitive, but they are technically dominating movies. The Reader is the compulsory Holocaust-era movie, and Revolutionary Road follows Mad Men-style 50's production design.
Costume Design
This category also features epic dramas set in the past, as it would require a lot of ingenuity to recreate the everyday clothing of their settings.
Makeup
Benjamin Button for all the old-person makeup, Hellboy (which I'm watching as I type this) for its amazing, creative creatures, and The Dark Knight for making Heath Ledger unrecognizable as The Joker.
Editing
Eh.
Visual Effects
I feel like listing my favorite effects shot from each movie here.
Benjamin Button : What else but the beautiful battle with the submarine?
Iron Man : When Tony Stark's armor goes too far into the atmosphere. His armor freezes, and he slowly plummets back to earth.
Dark Knight : Two words: Truck Flip.
Original Score
Hanz Zimmer is just a sweet name. But props to my boy A.R. I never thought I'd see him here. For those that don't know, Rahman is probably the most famous composer in India. He does the soundtracks for lots and lots of popular Bollywood films. And to Oscar presenters - when you say his name, it's pronounced Rehman, not Ramen like the delicious noodles.
Original Song
Clint Eastwood returns to his Paint Your Wagon days (remember that Boy Meets World episode?) and sings once more. Seriously, yeah, he sings the song "Gran Torino". Bruce Springsteen was commissioned to write the depressing-as-hell theme for The Wrestler . Two songs from Slumdog is probably unlikely, but they're equally deserving. "O Saya" is the drum-heavy song in the very beginning when the boys are being chased by the police. "Jai Ho" is the song during the credits dance sequence. Here's hoping both get nominated so we can see the performances during the ceremony. A.R. Rahman and M.I.A. on stage together would be pretty incredible.
Animated Film
Kung Fu Panda was the shit. If it wasn't for that cute little robot, it might have had a chance to win.
Foreign Language Film
Bashir is the frontrunner, an animated documentary in the style of A Scanner Darkly . It's about an Israeli soldier who fought in the first Lebanon War. His memory of that period seems to be missing, so he interviews fellow soldiers and friends to remember what happened during the war. The Class is a French film about a teacher and his students in a run-down Parisian school. The Turkish production 3 Monkeys has a politician accidentally killing a pedestrian and asking a servant to take the fall in exchange for a substantial reward. Everlasting Moments is a Swedish movie in which a poor woman wins a camera in a contest, changing her life forever. Lastly the German film with the really long title is about the Red Army Faction, a German terrorist organization that did assassinations and bombings and such in the '60s and '70s.
Should be fun.
Friday, January 16, 2009
Oscar Nominations Predictions!
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