2010 Senate Race Ratings UPDATED w/ cool graph

I came up with a disgustingly early rating for each Senate seat for the 2010 midterm election. The ratings go from Strong Democrat to Strong Republican. I have included explanations for each seat, although in the future I will only provide explanations when I change the rating on a seat. I don’t expect to do this very much in the near future. The reason I am doing this so early is twofold: (1) I like to see how a race has evolved over the course of two years, and (2) I am a total geek. I’ll do it in the form of a chart soon. While I know that other, more legitimate websites do ratings systems like these, I don't always agree with them, so I'm doing my own.

My early analysis – Republicans will probably lose more seats in 2010 than they gain, if they gain any.


Strong Democrat
AR (D-Lincoln) – Republicans have no bench whatsoever in Arkansas besides Huckabee, who won’t run.
CA (D-Boxer) – If Schwarzenegger enters the race (which I don’t think he will) I would move this to Likely Democrat, but otherwise Boxer is safe.
CT (D-Dodd) – Dodd doesn’t have high favorables, but he is safe.
DE (D-Kaufman, will be open seat) – Even though this will be an open seat, consider it safe democrat. Mike Castle is the only popular republican in the state, but he is so old that if he doesn’t retire he will stay in the House.
HI (D-Inouye) – He is old enough he could retire, but even so Hawaii is a very Democratic state. The Republican Governor Lingle could potentially run for Senate, but she has no real reason to at this point, especially since she is far from guaranteed a win.
IN (D-Bayh) – He is wildly popular here. In addition, Indiana is far more blue than it used to be.
MD (D-Mikulski) – Maryland is definitely a Democratic state.
ND (D-Dorgan) – Even though North Dakota is a Republican state, I don’t foresee Dorgan having any problems.
NY (D-Gillibrand) – Republicans were hoping so badly that Caroline Kennedy would be the pick.
NY (D-Schumer) – You don’t topple Schumer. Schumer topples you.
VT (D-Leahy) – Leahy isn’t budging whatsoever.
WA (D-Murray) – She has proven herself very adequate indeed at thwarting off challenges.
WI (D-Feingold) – Feingold always faces top notch challengers, yet he always wins. My guess is that he receives only token opposition this time.

Likely Democrat
CO (D-Bennet) – The fact that he has no name recognition whatsoever, yet still leads prospective Republican opponents in the polls is pretty telling.
IL (D-Burris) – Illinois is pretty damn liberal. Burris will have a tougher time winning the primary than the general I believe.
NV (D-Reid) – No one really likes Reid, but Nevada lacks a strong Republican bench. As the Republicans put immense amounts of political capital into defending McConnell, so will the Democrats in defending Reid. Personally, I don’t like him.

Lean Democrat
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Tossup
FL (R-Martinez, will be open seat) – Martinez has been wildly unpopular during his first time, thus he is retiring. I have no clue what is going to happen here at this point. If Jeb Bush runs it is his, but he said he won’t. Alex Sink is the leading Democrat for the job, but he has also refused. Who will run? TBD.
KY (R-Bunning) – If Bunning doesn’t retire, I am pretty sure he will lose. Bunning has mental issues – not a joke. The state strongly dislikes him. Republican leaders are trying to get him to retire, but he is refusing. He has raised a pitiful amount of money during his term. His Democratic challenger barely lost to him last time, and Bunning is even less liked now.
MO (R-Bond, will be open seat)- Bond retired, which may be due to the fact that nobody really enjoys being a Republican in Congress right now. If beloved Democrat Robin Carnahan decides to run, I feel she will be the front runner.
OH (R-Voinovich, will be open seat) – Voinovich also retired, maybe due to the same reason as Bond, although Voinovich is fairly old. Republican Rob Portman may be the frontrunner at this point, but we don’t know who his opponent will be and he worked for President Bush, which certainly doesn’t help him.

Lean Republican
NC (R-Burr) – Burr is in what has been labeled the “revolving-door-seat.” Nobody, Democrat or Republican, can seem to stay in office for more than one term. Early polling has shown Burr vulnerable, and North Carolina is becoming increasingly bluer.
NH (R-Gregg) – Gregg seems to know he is in trouble. He just saw his Republican partner in the Senate, Sununu, defeated in November. Gregg has been floated as a possible appointment for the Secretary of Commerce. If this happens, his seat will be empty and Democratic Governor John Lynch could pick whoever he wanted. However, I think he would pick a Republican. Just a hunch. If a Republican is appointed, they will face an extremely strong challenger in 2010, although so will Gregg if he stays.
PA (R-Specter) – Specter is nowhere near safe, but Specter seems to be a survivor. We shall see. He may also retire, which would give Democrats a huge boost.

Likely Republican
LA (R-Vitter) – Vitter has a prostitute type sex scandal a couple years back, but Louisiana is crazy and I think he will stay in office.

Strong Republican
AK (R-Murkowski) – The only possible change I see in this seat is which Republican holds it. The incumbent Murkowski? Or Palin perhaps?
AL (R-Shelby) – He won’t be moving anywhere unless he retires.
AZ (R-McCain) – Janet Napolitano was the Democrats best hope, but she is the new Attorney General of the United States. There are some rumors that he will face a Republican primary challenger because people don’t find him conservative enough. If a primary battle erupts and there is a legitimate Democrat in the race, it has the slight possibility of becoming interesting.
GA (R-Isakson) – Isakson may also face a primary challenger because some Republicans view him to not be conservative enough…what the hell? I understand McCain, but Isakson is pretty damn conservative. Even with a heated primary I don’t see Democrats having much of a chance at this early stage.
ID (R-Crapo) – Nothing to see here, move along.
IA (R-Grassley) – If Grassley retires, this may go straight to Lean Democrat. Iowa as a state can’t stand Republicans…except Grassley. Grassley may still face a decent challenger, but I expect him to keep the seat if he wants it.
KS (R-Brownback, will be open seat) – Brownback announced his retirement a couple years ago I believe. He is doing this to most likely run for Governor because the crazy-popular Democratic governor, Kathleen Sebelius, is term-limited. Sebelius is the one and only Democrat who could win this race. If she enters, this goes straight to Tossup.
OK (R-Coburn) – He is a crazy, crazy man. However, Oklahoma is a crazy, crazy state.
SC (R-DeMint) – DeMint is safe.
SD (R-Thune) – Safe, safe, safe.
TX (R-Hutchison) – Texas could become interesting. Hutchison may resign to run for governor against the current Republican governor Rick Perry. If this happens, there will be a crazy Republican primary process. There are some strong Democratic challengers who have declared they will run. Keep your eyes on this one.
UT (R-Bennett) – Besides Crapo, Bennett is possibly the safest Republican in the Senate.

If you read all of this, have an incredibly wonderful most glorious of days day.