The Academy Awards are on Sunday. I will be live-blogging them. But for now, these are my predictions for each category. If I get at least 83% correct, I'll be pleased. Along with what film I think will win, I will mention what film should win in my opinion. Enjoy. Actor in a Leading Role
Should Win: Sean Penn
Will Win: Mickey Rourke
Brad Pitt is a great actor (see Snatch , Seven ) but he didn't do anything in this movie. There were better performances that should have been acknowledged. Jenkins has been around for awhile and was great, but the film is too little to win. Frank Langella was the early favorite, but judging from other awards this season, the race is between Rourke and Penn. In Milk , think that Penn gave the greatest performance of his career. But he already won in 2003 for Mystic River, and voters might think that he doesn't need another award. Plus, everyone is a sucker for a comeback story, which makes Rourke the favorite. I won't mind if he wins, since his acceptance speech would to rock. Actress in a Leading Role
Should Win: Anne Hathaway
Will Win: Melissa Leo
I only saw Doubt , and Streep gave yet another one of her stern old woman performances. Jolie has no chance. Anne Hathaway had a lot of momentum as the awards season began, but she kind of fell off the map. I'd like her to win, as she did the impossible feat of shedding her Disney princess image and has become a legitimate actress (well, most of the time). Leo was supposed to be great in her independent film, but the clear favorite is Kate Winslet. I love her body of work, but I hate The Reader as mentioned before and refuse to acknowledge that it might win such a prestigious award. This is Winslet's sixth nomination, but it would be sad if her career is defined by this movie. Thus, I'm going to pick Melissa Leo to win since if she does pull off the upset, I'll look really smart. Actor in a Supporting Role
Should Win: Heath Ledger
Will Win: Heath Ledger
This category is depressing. Heath Ledger owned in The Dark Knight , and everyone with a rational mind knows that he's going to win on merit and not because he passed away. I know I'm going to have tears in my eyes when his family goes up on stage to accept. It's also sad because in any other year, Hoffman, Brolin, and Downey Jr. could have easily won the award. This is pretty much the strongest category in the awards, even though we all know the victor. Actress in a Supporting Role
Should Win: Penelope Cruz
Will Win: Tajari P. Henson
This is the toughest category to call this year. All the previous awards (Golden Globes, SAG) were won by Kate Winslet, who had entered her role in The Reader in this category. So unlike the previous categories, there's no known leader. Marisa Tomei already won this award for My Cousin Vinny, which many people thought she didn't deserve. Voters may give her another one to justify Tomei's acting talents. Either Doubt co-star could also win, but I feel like the two women will split the vote and end up empty-handed. Davis was only in two scenes in that movie, but the were intensely gripping. Lots of pundits are giving the award to Cruz, and I agree that she deserves the Oscar. However, Henson gave the best performance in Button and will probably win. It would be too embarrassing for the industry if such a high prestige movie was to be shut out of every major category. Best Director
Should Win: Danny Boyle
Will Win: Danny Boyle
Forget the fact that three people on this list don't deserve to be here (Howard, Van Sant, and Daldry) because of the snub of one Christopher Nolan. Boyle is going to win, hands down. He filmed on location in the slums of Bombay with a cast of unknown child actors and Bollywood b-list actors. It's hard to believe how he pulled of some of the shot in that movie- the opening chase and the train sequence come to mind. I feel bad for Fincher, who I typically adore. Seven and Fight Club are two of my favorite movies. Again, like Winslet, I just feel like this was the worst movie he's made and he shouldn't get acclaimed for lousy work. Art Direction
Should Win: Benjamin Button
Will Win: Benjamin Button
Sorry, but I don't have time to type out each name. I feel bad, because it makes it seem like they don't matter. But they do. Anyways, I've never discounted Button's technical bravura. The film managed to realistically recreate sets from nearly an entire century, from the train station to the tugboat to the streets of New York. The rest of the movies were good, but they only had to focus on a single time period. Which isn't good enough this year. Cinematography
Should Win: The Dark Knight
Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire
This category is a toss-up between Slumdog, Button, and Dark Knight. All three films made good use of lighting to reflect the emotions of their characters and to influence the mood of the audience. I prefer Batman, which used overpowering darkness to convey an unsettling sense of dread throughout the movie. I'd be happy if either of these three movies win, but it would be cool to see The Dark Knight as revenge for its disappearance in the major awards. It seems like Slumdog is going to win, with its incredible depiction of both India's beauty and its unpleasantness. Adapted Screenplay
Should Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Even though the source material is reportedly nothing like the movie, Simon Beaufoy will win. It is written. Original Screenplay
Should Win: In Bruges
Will Win: In Bruges
This is my genius pick of the night. Everyone has their money on Milk. I'm sticking with Colin Farrel and Ralph Fiennes. In Bruges was beloved by all who saw it, and it will win the only Oscar it was nominated for. If this actually happens, I will scream from the top of my roof. Costume Design
Should Win: Benjamin Button
Will Win: The Duchess
Again, I'm a big fan of Button's incredible technical work, and it should win for accurately reproducing costumes from several distinct time periods. But the Academy loves those medieval period dramas in this category, so it'll go to The Duchess Editing
Should Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Neither Button nor Milk had particularly memorable editing. Frost/Niixon was fast-paced and intense, but it wasn't very inventive. The Dark Knight had some excellently cut sequences, but nothing could match the insane energy created by splicing frames together in Slumdog . Makeup
Should Win: Hellboy 2
Will Win: Hellboy 2
Did anyone else see that wonderfully bizarre underground market scene? If yes, you know why Hellboy is going to win. Also, Button was mostly CGI and the Joker was really the only one with makeup in his movie. Foreign Language Film
Should Win: Waltz With Bashir
Will Win: The Class
Bashir is an documentary that is animated in the style of A Scanner Darkly. I'm going to watch it in a few weeks, and it looks sweet. However, voters generally don't like war and animation ( Bashir is about the Israeli-Palestinian War) so they'll go with The Class , which won the top prize at the Cannes Film Festival. Best Picture
Should Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire
It is a really good film. Everyone likes it. And it has won every major picture award. There is no stopping the Slumdog train. Jai Ho! Visual Effects
Should Win: Benjamin Button
Will Win: Benjamin Button
No contest. Making Brad Pitt look like an old baby man for most of the movie was the greatest technical feat of the year. Animated Film
Should Win: Wall E
Will Win: Wall E
I heard it's really good. I'm going to watch in the next few days, don't worry. Original Song
Should Win: "O Saya"
Will Win: "Jai Ho"
Both songs from Slumdog are pretty remarkable. I prefer the first, with it's core-shattering drums and MIA's rapping. I'd be cool with "Jai Ho" winning too, and it will, with its upbeat tempo and catchy refrain. Original Score
Should Win: A.R. Rahman
Will Win: A.R. Rahman
I've been listening to this guy since I was 8 years old. I may cry if he gets the award. What a great step for Indian culture in America. Thanks for enjoying it, honkies. Live Action Short Film
Should Win: The Pig
Will Win: The Pig
I was actually able to see all the short films for this year's Oscars. I meant to have them reviewed beforehand, but I kind of forgot. I'll have them done very soon. The Pig is heartfelt and witty, easily the most entertaining short. But Toyland is about kids and the Holocaust, so of course it's going to win. But I'm crusading against Holocaust films this year, so I'm going to predict that The Pig will win. Animated Short Film
Should Win: La Maison en Petits Cubes
Will Win: La Maison en Petits Cubes
Those of you who saw Wall E in theaters have seen Presto, which was attached to it. It was fun yet frivolous, just like the rest of the category except for La Maison. It was a mature, gorgeous animation about an old man living in an underwater world who revisits memories from when the world was proper and dry. Good stuff. Check it out on the youtube or something. Sound Mixing
Should Win: The Dark Knight
Will Win: Wall E
I don't know what this category means. I feel like the cute robot will win. Sound Editing
Should Win: The Dark Knight
Will Win: The Dark Knight
Again, this category is just unnecessary. So Batman's going to win it.
Saturday, February 21, 2009
Bona-Fide Oscar Predictions
Friday, January 16, 2009
Oscar Nominations Predictions!
These are predictions for what films are going to be nominated for Oscars. The actual nominations will be announced in a week, on the 22nd of January. A lot of these picks are conventional wisdom, but I'm going to give it a go anyways. And no, I won't be predicting the categories like sound mixing. I'd love to but I don't have the time. For some awards, like cinematography, I'll give a quick brief on what each means. Even I had no idea what Art Direction was until a few weeks ago.
Best Picture
The first three are locks. Gran Torino is gaining a lot of support, especially because of the $30 million it made over the weekend. Frost/Nixon is a popular choice, but I feel like it's losing steam. The Dark Knight could easily be replaced by that or Doubt, but a man can hope.
Best Actor
I see Brad Pitt getting bumped off in favor for Jenkins. The Oscars always throw in an under-appreciated actor just to recognize them for a good performance (see Ryan Gosling for Half Nelson and Viggo Mortensen for Eastern Promises ). Plus, Pitt didn't do much besides look old and sad. And later, young and sad.
Best Actress
The first four are locks. I picked Scott Thomas over Angelina Jolie (Changeling), who got love for A Mighty Heart last year. Her film, in French, is about a woman with a painful secret that returns to her sister after a fifteen year absence. Happy-Go-Lucky is a British film about a schoolteacher who always remains optimistic and happy, no matter what her predicament is.
Best Director
Once again, I have Frost/Nixon going down in favor of Clint Eastwood.
Best Supporting Actor
Downey Jr. is a wild card but he's going to get the final slot for a few reasons. First, Heath Ledger is going to win anyways so it doesn't really matter who's nominated. Second, the Academy Awards needs the ratings boost. Lastly, he's awesome and totally deserves the recognition.
Best Supporting Actress
All of these are pretty solid, little competition here. The only question is, will Kate Winslet be eligible for a supporting role? She had a major part in The Reader , but she's trying this category to avoid competition with herself in the Best Actress race. She made it into the supporting category at the Golden Globes, but who knows with the Oscars.
Original Screenplay
In Bruges is a long shot, I know. I have hope, especially since it's been gaining popularity since the Golden Globes and BAFTAs. This category is insanely wide open. The only sure thing is Milk .
Adapted Screenplay
No real surprises among this bunch. The sources of these screenplays: Two Broadway plays, an F. Scott Fitzgerald short story, a little-known novel, and a comic book character.
Cinematography
The cinematographer works with the lighting of each scene. It may not seem like a big deal, but a film's lighting often influences the audience's mood. For example, a lot of The Dark Knight is shot with low-key lighting in order for us to feel as somber as the characters in the movie.
Art Direction
Art direction is really made up of both the art director and set design. They construct the sets, choose locales, create props, basically everything in the background of the film. This award usually goes to period pieces which require re-creating the look and feel of decades long past. I know the first three seem repetitive, but they are technically dominating movies. The Reader is the compulsory Holocaust-era movie, and Revolutionary Road follows Mad Men-style 50's production design.
Costume Design
This category also features epic dramas set in the past, as it would require a lot of ingenuity to recreate the everyday clothing of their settings.
Makeup
Benjamin Button for all the old-person makeup, Hellboy (which I'm watching as I type this) for its amazing, creative creatures, and The Dark Knight for making Heath Ledger unrecognizable as The Joker.
Editing
Eh.
Visual Effects
I feel like listing my favorite effects shot from each movie here.
Benjamin Button : What else but the beautiful battle with the submarine?
Iron Man : When Tony Stark's armor goes too far into the atmosphere. His armor freezes, and he slowly plummets back to earth.
Dark Knight : Two words: Truck Flip.
Original Score
Hanz Zimmer is just a sweet name. But props to my boy A.R. I never thought I'd see him here. For those that don't know, Rahman is probably the most famous composer in India. He does the soundtracks for lots and lots of popular Bollywood films. And to Oscar presenters - when you say his name, it's pronounced Rehman, not Ramen like the delicious noodles.
Original Song
Clint Eastwood returns to his Paint Your Wagon days (remember that Boy Meets World episode?) and sings once more. Seriously, yeah, he sings the song "Gran Torino". Bruce Springsteen was commissioned to write the depressing-as-hell theme for The Wrestler . Two songs from Slumdog is probably unlikely, but they're equally deserving. "O Saya" is the drum-heavy song in the very beginning when the boys are being chased by the police. "Jai Ho" is the song during the credits dance sequence. Here's hoping both get nominated so we can see the performances during the ceremony. A.R. Rahman and M.I.A. on stage together would be pretty incredible.
Animated Film
Kung Fu Panda was the shit. If it wasn't for that cute little robot, it might have had a chance to win.
Foreign Language Film
Bashir is the frontrunner, an animated documentary in the style of A Scanner Darkly . It's about an Israeli soldier who fought in the first Lebanon War. His memory of that period seems to be missing, so he interviews fellow soldiers and friends to remember what happened during the war. The Class is a French film about a teacher and his students in a run-down Parisian school. The Turkish production 3 Monkeys has a politician accidentally killing a pedestrian and asking a servant to take the fall in exchange for a substantial reward. Everlasting Moments is a Swedish movie in which a poor woman wins a camera in a contest, changing her life forever. Lastly the German film with the really long title is about the Red Army Faction, a German terrorist organization that did assassinations and bombings and such in the '60s and '70s.
Should be fun.