The Academy Awards are on Sunday. I will be live-blogging them. But for now, these are my predictions for each category. If I get at least 83% correct, I'll be pleased. Along with what film I think will win, I will mention what film should win in my opinion. Enjoy. Actor in a Leading Role
Should Win: Sean Penn
Will Win: Mickey Rourke
Brad Pitt is a great actor (see Snatch , Seven ) but he didn't do anything in this movie. There were better performances that should have been acknowledged. Jenkins has been around for awhile and was great, but the film is too little to win. Frank Langella was the early favorite, but judging from other awards this season, the race is between Rourke and Penn. In Milk , think that Penn gave the greatest performance of his career. But he already won in 2003 for Mystic River, and voters might think that he doesn't need another award. Plus, everyone is a sucker for a comeback story, which makes Rourke the favorite. I won't mind if he wins, since his acceptance speech would to rock. Actress in a Leading Role
Should Win: Anne Hathaway
Will Win: Melissa Leo
I only saw Doubt , and Streep gave yet another one of her stern old woman performances. Jolie has no chance. Anne Hathaway had a lot of momentum as the awards season began, but she kind of fell off the map. I'd like her to win, as she did the impossible feat of shedding her Disney princess image and has become a legitimate actress (well, most of the time). Leo was supposed to be great in her independent film, but the clear favorite is Kate Winslet. I love her body of work, but I hate The Reader as mentioned before and refuse to acknowledge that it might win such a prestigious award. This is Winslet's sixth nomination, but it would be sad if her career is defined by this movie. Thus, I'm going to pick Melissa Leo to win since if she does pull off the upset, I'll look really smart. Actor in a Supporting Role
Should Win: Heath Ledger
Will Win: Heath Ledger
This category is depressing. Heath Ledger owned in The Dark Knight , and everyone with a rational mind knows that he's going to win on merit and not because he passed away. I know I'm going to have tears in my eyes when his family goes up on stage to accept. It's also sad because in any other year, Hoffman, Brolin, and Downey Jr. could have easily won the award. This is pretty much the strongest category in the awards, even though we all know the victor. Actress in a Supporting Role
Should Win: Penelope Cruz
Will Win: Tajari P. Henson
This is the toughest category to call this year. All the previous awards (Golden Globes, SAG) were won by Kate Winslet, who had entered her role in The Reader in this category. So unlike the previous categories, there's no known leader. Marisa Tomei already won this award for My Cousin Vinny, which many people thought she didn't deserve. Voters may give her another one to justify Tomei's acting talents. Either Doubt co-star could also win, but I feel like the two women will split the vote and end up empty-handed. Davis was only in two scenes in that movie, but the were intensely gripping. Lots of pundits are giving the award to Cruz, and I agree that she deserves the Oscar. However, Henson gave the best performance in Button and will probably win. It would be too embarrassing for the industry if such a high prestige movie was to be shut out of every major category. Best Director
Should Win: Danny Boyle
Will Win: Danny Boyle
Forget the fact that three people on this list don't deserve to be here (Howard, Van Sant, and Daldry) because of the snub of one Christopher Nolan. Boyle is going to win, hands down. He filmed on location in the slums of Bombay with a cast of unknown child actors and Bollywood b-list actors. It's hard to believe how he pulled of some of the shot in that movie- the opening chase and the train sequence come to mind. I feel bad for Fincher, who I typically adore. Seven and Fight Club are two of my favorite movies. Again, like Winslet, I just feel like this was the worst movie he's made and he shouldn't get acclaimed for lousy work. Art Direction
Should Win: Benjamin Button
Will Win: Benjamin Button
Sorry, but I don't have time to type out each name. I feel bad, because it makes it seem like they don't matter. But they do. Anyways, I've never discounted Button's technical bravura. The film managed to realistically recreate sets from nearly an entire century, from the train station to the tugboat to the streets of New York. The rest of the movies were good, but they only had to focus on a single time period. Which isn't good enough this year. Cinematography
Should Win: The Dark Knight
Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire
This category is a toss-up between Slumdog, Button, and Dark Knight. All three films made good use of lighting to reflect the emotions of their characters and to influence the mood of the audience. I prefer Batman, which used overpowering darkness to convey an unsettling sense of dread throughout the movie. I'd be happy if either of these three movies win, but it would be cool to see The Dark Knight as revenge for its disappearance in the major awards. It seems like Slumdog is going to win, with its incredible depiction of both India's beauty and its unpleasantness. Adapted Screenplay
Should Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Even though the source material is reportedly nothing like the movie, Simon Beaufoy will win. It is written. Original Screenplay
Should Win: In Bruges
Will Win: In Bruges
This is my genius pick of the night. Everyone has their money on Milk. I'm sticking with Colin Farrel and Ralph Fiennes. In Bruges was beloved by all who saw it, and it will win the only Oscar it was nominated for. If this actually happens, I will scream from the top of my roof. Costume Design
Should Win: Benjamin Button
Will Win: The Duchess
Again, I'm a big fan of Button's incredible technical work, and it should win for accurately reproducing costumes from several distinct time periods. But the Academy loves those medieval period dramas in this category, so it'll go to The Duchess Editing
Should Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Neither Button nor Milk had particularly memorable editing. Frost/Niixon was fast-paced and intense, but it wasn't very inventive. The Dark Knight had some excellently cut sequences, but nothing could match the insane energy created by splicing frames together in Slumdog . Makeup
Should Win: Hellboy 2
Will Win: Hellboy 2
Did anyone else see that wonderfully bizarre underground market scene? If yes, you know why Hellboy is going to win. Also, Button was mostly CGI and the Joker was really the only one with makeup in his movie. Foreign Language Film
Should Win: Waltz With Bashir
Will Win: The Class
Bashir is an documentary that is animated in the style of A Scanner Darkly. I'm going to watch it in a few weeks, and it looks sweet. However, voters generally don't like war and animation ( Bashir is about the Israeli-Palestinian War) so they'll go with The Class , which won the top prize at the Cannes Film Festival. Best Picture
Should Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire
It is a really good film. Everyone likes it. And it has won every major picture award. There is no stopping the Slumdog train. Jai Ho! Visual Effects
Should Win: Benjamin Button
Will Win: Benjamin Button
No contest. Making Brad Pitt look like an old baby man for most of the movie was the greatest technical feat of the year. Animated Film
Should Win: Wall E
Will Win: Wall E
I heard it's really good. I'm going to watch in the next few days, don't worry. Original Song
Should Win: "O Saya"
Will Win: "Jai Ho"
Both songs from Slumdog are pretty remarkable. I prefer the first, with it's core-shattering drums and MIA's rapping. I'd be cool with "Jai Ho" winning too, and it will, with its upbeat tempo and catchy refrain. Original Score
Should Win: A.R. Rahman
Will Win: A.R. Rahman
I've been listening to this guy since I was 8 years old. I may cry if he gets the award. What a great step for Indian culture in America. Thanks for enjoying it, honkies. Live Action Short Film
Should Win: The Pig
Will Win: The Pig
I was actually able to see all the short films for this year's Oscars. I meant to have them reviewed beforehand, but I kind of forgot. I'll have them done very soon. The Pig is heartfelt and witty, easily the most entertaining short. But Toyland is about kids and the Holocaust, so of course it's going to win. But I'm crusading against Holocaust films this year, so I'm going to predict that The Pig will win. Animated Short Film
Should Win: La Maison en Petits Cubes
Will Win: La Maison en Petits Cubes
Those of you who saw Wall E in theaters have seen Presto, which was attached to it. It was fun yet frivolous, just like the rest of the category except for La Maison. It was a mature, gorgeous animation about an old man living in an underwater world who revisits memories from when the world was proper and dry. Good stuff. Check it out on the youtube or something. Sound Mixing
Should Win: The Dark Knight
Will Win: Wall E
I don't know what this category means. I feel like the cute robot will win. Sound Editing
Should Win: The Dark Knight
Will Win: The Dark Knight
Again, this category is just unnecessary. So Batman's going to win it.
Saturday, February 21, 2009
Bona-Fide Oscar Predictions
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2 comments:
I liked Kung Fu Panda more than Wall E.
Blasphemy!
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